As Bayelsa State warms up for the November 2 governorship election, key leaders of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are torn apart by their antagonistic positions on succession. Correspondent MIKE ODIEGWU writes on the politics of nomination in the ruling party.
The November 2 governorship election in Bayelsa State will be a battle between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). The PDP, however, is in a vantage position. Since 1999, PDP has been occupying the Creek Haven, a sobriquet for the Bayelsa State Government House.
The PDP prides itself as an Ijaw party. But, the last election threatened its dominance. The APC made and in-road into the PDP enclave, winning former President Goodluck Jonathan’s Bayelsa East Senatorial District and two seats in the House of Representatives.
APC also won three seats in the House of Assembly. But, the PDP has vowed to reclaim its lost seats at the tribunal, describing the victory of the APC as stolen mandates. But, to win the forthcoming governorship election, the PDP needs to overcome its internal squabbles
Dickson and Jonathan at war:
The two contending kingmakers in Bayelsa PDP are former President Goodluck Jonathan and Governor Seriake Dickson. The former president played an incontrovertible role in th emergence of Dickson in 2012. Observers, however, believe that Jonathan’s support for Dickson was not borne out of his love for him, but propelled by his belief that Dickson had the required war chest to wrestle power from former Governor Timipre Sylva.
Their relationship went sour, shortly after Dickson’s emergence. Dr. Jonathan allowed forces from his office, backed by his wife, Patience, to persecute the governor. People watched Dickson as he battled presidential forces, who were bent on frustrating him with a plot to impeach him and stop him from completing his first term.
The governor survived the shenanigans of his detractors. In fact, it is believed that if Jonathan had succeeded in securing a second term, Dickson would not have completed his first term.
The defeat of Jonathan by President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) halted the war against Dickson. It, however, deepened the cold war between Jonathan and Dickson. It whittled down the influence of Jonathan in Bayelsa PDP, following the belief that Jonathan wasted a grand opportunity to develop the state.
Indeed, Dickson cornered the PDP structures. The last general elections tightened the governor’s grip on the PDP. All the candidates that emerged victorious from the National Assembly and House of Assembly elections came from his camp. The governor was said to have carefully selected persons loyal to him to contest the elections.
Though some party leaders criticised him for not allowing aspirants loyal to Jonathan to win the PDP primary, Dickson remained unruffled, believing that his survival after leaving office depended on the disposition of incumbent office holders in the state. The governor was also said to have acted in preparation for the forthcoming governorship election.
Out of the 24 seats in the House of Assembly, Dickson installed 20 lawmakers. The APC won three seats while elections in Brass Constituency 1 is pending. Also, out of the three senatorial seats, Dickson’s candidates; Mr. Lawrence Ewrujakpor and Douye Diri, warn in Bayelsa West and Central. PDP lost Jonathan’s Bayelsa East to the candidate of the APC, Degi Eremienyo Wagara.
In the House of Representatives, the governor got three of the five seats. He lost Brass-Nembe and Southern Ijaw constituencies to the candidates of the APC, Isreal Sunny-Goli and Preye Oseke respectively. But, his candidates won in Ekeremor-Sagabama, Fred Agbedi; Yenagoa-Kolokuma, Stephen Azaiki and Ogbia Federal Constituency, Fred Obua.
Having secured most of the elective offices for his loyalists and with the backing of PDP leadership, it is believed that Dickson, not Jonathan, has the yam and the knife to decide who flies the flag of the party in the governorship election.
But, Dickson knows that the battle to completely stop Jonathan’s influence in choosing the PDP pair for the election will not be a tea party. Already, most of the big names indicating interests the ticket have strong ties with the former President. They also possess the political muscles to operate from the camp of Jonathan to frustrate Dickson’s ambitions.
The former President recently indicated that he remained an active leader of the party. When reports made the rounds that he had quit the PDP and announced his retirement from active politics, Jonathan debunked it through his Media Adviser, Ikechukwu Eze. The media aide said the report, which went viral on social media, was borne out of mischief.
He said: “Our attention has been drawn to a fake story published by an unknown website, alleging that former President Dr Goodluck Jonathan has quit the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
“Obviously, this is a fabrication borne out of mischief.
“For the avoidance of doubt, Dr. Jonathan has no reason at this time to resign his membership of PDP, the party under which platform he became Deputy Governor, Governor, Vice-President and President.”
Sources said that Jonathan and his wife, Patience, would work through Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike and the National Chairman of the PDP, Uche Secondus, to deliver his anointed candidate as a flag bearer of the PDP.
But, others in the party insisted that with the kind of grip Dickson has on the PDP structure, any attempt by the national leadership to work with Jonathan, instead of Dickson, would portend danger to the PDP.
Zoning:
Zoning is one of the factors that will be considered in selecting the PDP flag bearer. The Bayelsa Central comprising Yenagoa, Southern Ijaw and Kolokuma-Opokuma local government areas has presented the strongest case.
In the district, Yenagoa and Kolokuma-Opokuma have yet to produce the governor since 1999. Southern Ijaw ruled the state from May 29, 1999 to December 9, 2005 through the late Chief Diepreye Alamieyeiseigha.
Though Yenagoa once produced Deputy Governor Werinipre Seibarugu, it is yet to produce a governor despite being the capital of the state. Kolokuma-Opokuma is the most politically-disadvantaged local government area following its perceived political weakness especially for having the least voter population. So, it has nether produced a deputy nor a governor.
Pundits, however, say nothing stops Dickson and the PDP from giving Ogbia, Jonathan’s Local Government Area, the party’s governorship flag as a political masterstroke to calm the frayed nerves of the former President, secure his support and promote unity in the party.
Besides, Ogbia only had a short stint at the governorship in the past. Jonathan only completed the tenure of the late Alamieyeiseigha and he was immediately elevated to the position of the Vice-President. Nembe and Brass local government areas in the same East District with Ogbia are not making any strong case for the PDP flag. Nembe still occupies the deputy governorship seat while Brass occupied the position through former Governor Timipre Sylva, who is now the leader of the APC in Bayelsa.
In the West, Sagabama is the most politically blessed local council. Dickson, the first candidate heading for a successful completion of his second term as a governor of Bayelsa, hails from the council. The entire West, including Ekeremor Local Government Area, has also enjoyed appreciable development under Dickson more than any other senatorial district. With Dickson rounding off his second term from the district, Ekeremor lacks the moral rectitude to make case for the PDP ticket.
Undoubtedly, most vocal people in PDP are clamouring for the Central District. While some want the ticket of PDP to go to Yenagoa, others are agitating for Southern Ijaw while the rest are standing on Kolokuma-Opokuma agenda.
With the reviewed voters register, Yenagoa has overtaken Southern Ijaw which hitherto was termed the Kano of Bayelsa in terms of voter population. While Yenagoa has 201,977 voters, Southern Ijaw now has 165,449.
Kolokuma-Opokuma has the least voter population of 52, 780 in the entire state. Others are Ogbia 109,966, Ekeremor 125, 189; Nembe 92,717; Sagbama 109,460 and Brass 67,894. Therefore, voter population may determine which local government area the PDP ticket will be zoned to in a preferred senatorial district.
Who flies the PDP flag?
Many prominent politicians have indicated interest. Some of them have strong ties with former President Jonathan.
Keniebi Okoko:
He is the son of a prominent scholar, Prof. Kimse Okoko. His name stands out among other aspirants in the PDP largely because of his philanthropic activities. Keniebi has always identified with the plight of the people of the state through his Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO), Keniebi Okoko Foundation.
Keniebi has always tried to support the government by addressing some challenges in the state such as humanitarian problems caused by flood and other natural disasters.
Keniebi, who hails from Gbarain-Ekpetiama, Yenagoa, in the Central District, which has presented the strongest case on zoning. Yenagoa also had the highest concentration of voter population compared to other local government areas in the state.
He a young, highly educated and exposed businessman with a degree in Political Science from Carlton University and second degree in Economics. He is known to have kept faith with the PDP, unlike some party junketers.
Okoko said: “Bayelsa as a whole needs to focus on education. Mental poverty is worse than financial poverty. If a mind is not developed and equipped, a man cannot give what he does not have.
Timi Alaibe:
The Principal as he is fondly called has become a recurrent decimal at the buildup of each governorship election in Bayelsa. Alaibe, who hails from Kolokuma-Opokuma, the local government area with the least voter population was a former Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC).
Alaibe has always nursed the ambition to govern Bayelsa. It is believed that his ambition drove him into making some choices that had negatively affected his chances of emerging as a candidate at each election.
Alaibe within the period had jumped from the PDP to the Labour Party back to the PDP. He also left for the APC and later returned to the PDP. He reasons that the expiration of Dickson’s second term presents him the clearest opportunity to clinch the party ticket.
His ambition to fly the flag of the APC in the last election was frustrated by former Governor Timipre Sylva, who perceived him as an interloper with a desire to harvest where he failed to cultivate. But Alaibe’s return to the PDP last year seems to have altered the political calculation in the party.
Despite his obvious missteps, Alaibe remains relevant in the state polity.
Reuben Okoya:
A US-trained architect, Okoya showed his commitment for development when he was appointed the Coordinator, Abuja Metropolitan Management Council (AMMC) by former President Jonathan. As a philanthropist, Okoya has always identified with humanitarian crises in the state.
During the last floods, he visited camps of displaced persons and donated money as well as relief materials to them. After evaluating other aspirants, a group, Campaign for Development and Democracy in Bayelsa (CDDB) coordinated by a university don, Dr. Konrad Welson, settled for Okoya. He said: “Okoya is our undisputed choice for the 2019 Bayelsa governorship race”.
Senator Emmanuel Paulker:
The 63-year-old graduate of Biochemisrty at the University of Port Harcourt once served as the Commissioner for Lands and Housing under the administration of the late Diepreye Alamieyeiseigha. Paulker, who hails from Yenagoa has been in the Senate since 2007. Though he appears to be the most taciturn senator, he is said to have served in many committees and to have influenced some powerful decisions at the Senate underground. Paulker tried to wrestle the ticket of the PDP from Dickson in 2015 but was disqualified by the party. He is reportedly ready for a comeback.
Dr. Godknows Igali:
Igali has held many public offices. The 59-year-old public administrator was an ambassador to some Scandinavian countries. Igali, who holds Ph.D in political science and international studies with two degrees in history and international law, hails from Southern Ijaw Local Government Area.
Igali is a close friend to former President Jonathan. He received a national honour in 2005 of the Officer of the Order of the Niger (OON). After serving as the Secretary to Government, he was appointed in 2010 as the Federal Permanent Secretary for Water Resources. He was later redeployed to the Federal Ministry of Power by Jonathan.
Igali has been close to Dickson and has written many articles to support projects and programmes of the governor’s Restoration Government. He is also present in most state government functions.
Joshua Macaiver:
A former ex-militant leader and the first to renounce militancy in 2008, Macaiver took everybody by surprise when he indicated interest. He was appointed by Dickson as the Caretaker Committee Chairman of Southern Ijaw Local Government Area. He was the first to set up a campaign office along the Isaac Boroh Expressway, Yenagoa.
Others who are also eyeing the ticket are former Deputy Governor Peremobowei Ebebi; former member of the House of Assembly, Stephen Ereboh; Bayelsa founding father, Bekes Etifa; a member representing Sagabama-Ekeremor in the House of Representatives, Fred Agbedi, and a nuclear scientist, Franklin Osaisai.
Dickson’s preference:
The fear in the PDP is the body language of Dickson. The governor is seen as the most strategic, deft and thorough politician in the state. Having weathered the storms, Dickson intends to sustain his grip in Bayelsa politics.
The governor knows that his succession plan is crucial in determining his survival and relevance after his tenure. Those who have the ears of the governor said he would not concede the ticket to anyone outside his Restoration Cabinet.
In fact, it was gathered that security reports sealed the fate of some of outsiders jostling for the ticket. It was learnt that a few of them are indebted to banks and other commercial institutions in their private businesses and if any of such persons wins the ticket and governor, he will transfer the debt burden to the state.