There is no likelihood of petrol pump price hike in Nigeria despite sharp rise in the price of crude in the international market.
Though despite being an oil-producing nation, Nigeria relies heavily on imported petroleum products.
This means that any rise in global oil prices is directly reflected in local fuel pump prices.
Currently, petrol sells for between N870 and N1,100 per litre in some urban centres, with diesel selling for about N970 to N1,100.
With the spike in crude prices, local marketers say petrol could hit N1,200 per litre in the next few days if the rally continues.
However in a positive growth in local refining capacity, a highlighted report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), showed a significant decline in Nigeria’s importation of petroleum products, with the total value dropping to ₦3.786tn in the first quarter of 2025.
According to its Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics for Q1 2025, this marks a 21.21 per cent decline from the ₦4.805tn recorded in Q4 2024 and a sharp 75.55 per cent drop from ₦15.48tn in Q1 2024.
The drop coincides with increased domestic output from refineries such as the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery.
The NBS also reported that crude oil exports fell to ₦12.95tn in Q1 2025, down 16.35 per cent from ₦15.48tn recorded in Q1 2024 and 6.01 per cent from ₦13.78tn in Q4 2024.
“Other oil product exports in Q1 2025 stood at ₦4.47tn, showing an increase of 134.24 per cent rise from ₦1.91tn in Q1 2024 and as well as increase of 32.07 per cent from ₦3.388.8bn in Q4, 2024,” the NBS said.
The agency added that agricultural exports grew substantially during the period.
“Exports of agricultural goods in the period under review amounted to ₦1.7tn representing a 64.65 per cent rise from ₦1.035bn in Q1 2024 and a 10.63 per cent increase from ₦1.54bn in Q4 2024.”
The value of raw material exports also climbed in Q1 2025, reaching ₦1.04tn, a 196.12 per cent surge from ₦352.75bn in Q1 2024 and a 55.65 per cent increase from ₦671.12bn in Q4 2024.
However, solid mineral exports dropped by 7.17 per cent to ₦58.87bn, compared to ₦63.41bn in Q1 2024, and decreased by 3.03 per cent from ₦60.70bn in Q4 2024.
However , there are fears that the rise in crude prices also raises issues about Nigeria’s inflation trend, which already stood at 33.88 per cent in April 2025, caused by fuel and transport costs.
A spike in crude oil prices means more expensive logistics, food prices, and power costs, especially for families and businesses depending on diesel and petrol-powered generators.
Petroleumprice reports that the renewed tension exposes Nigeria’s longstanding weakness in the energy supply chain.
Despite being Africa’s largest producer, Nigeria has yet to fully revive its refining facilities to function optimally as the Dangote Refinery continues to rely on imported crude to meet its refining needs.
Reports say the country’s dependence on imports exposes it to external shocks, such as the Middle East crisis.
The international oil market reacted swiftly on Thursday, June 12, 2024, after Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites.
The tension sent Brent price soaring to $76.12 per barrel, representing 9.76 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate rose by 9.77 per cent at $74.69.
Murban crude also spiked in price to $75.70, and gas hit a 1.95 per cent surge, showing widespread market panic